The current China's new crown epidemic has been effectively controlled, and the socio-economic recovery has also accelerated. Recently, major projects in Shanghai, Tianjin, Guizhou and other places have started intensively. Guangxi has also announced the third batch of 170 major projects to be promoted at the autonomous region level in 2021. How to better play the "ballast stone" role of major projects? How to continue to make steady investment in the second half of the year? The reporter interviewed relevant experts and scholars.

Positive changes in investment structure

In the first half of the year, China's investment in fixed assets has recovered steadily, investment in manufacturing has grown well, private investment has gradually recovered, and the investment structure has shown positive changes.

"In the first half of the year, the investment growth rate recovered relatively quickly. Measured by the average growth rate in two years, it has been restored to about 80% in the same period of 2019." Investment has improved due to the rebound in corporate capital expenditure willingness and support from medium and long-term loans; real estate investment has declined but the resilience remains, and the growth rate of infrastructure investment has been weak. While the three types of investment are differentiated, the investment structure is also optimized: the two-year average growth rate of investment in high-tech industries, high-tech manufacturing and high-tech service industries in the first half of the year has all increased significantly compared with the first quarter.

Judging from the "semi-annual report" of the local economy, manufacturing investment, especially high-tech manufacturing investment, has a clear driving force. In the first half of the year, Beijing’s manufacturing investment increased by 31.8% year-on-year, and the two-year average growth rate was 66.5%, of which high-tech manufacturing investment increased by 38.6% year-on-year, and the two-year average growth rate was 75%. Investment in manufacturing in Inner Mongolia increased by 64.1%, of which investment in high-tech manufacturing increased by 1.2 times.

In the first half of the year, China's private investment increased by 15.4% year-on-year; the two-year average growth rate was 3.8%, 2.1 percentage points faster than the first quarter. Localities continued to deepen the reform of decentralization, regulation and service, and private investment activity increased. For example, Shanghai's private investment in the first half of the year increased by 18.5% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 7.6 percentage points higher than the growth rate of total fixed asset investment. Among them, industrial private investment increased by 32.7%, and the completed investment in aviation, artificial intelligence and other private investment projects exceeded 100 million yuan.

"Overall, the fixed asset investment in the first half of the year was in line with expectations. The investment growth rate accelerated month by month. The structure of investment in private investment, high-tech, social and people’s livelihoods, and making up for shortcomings showed structural improvement and optimization. Investment played a key role in the steady economic growth. Sexual role.” said Wen Bin, chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank.

Increased investment growth in high-tech fields

In accordance with the requirements of the executive meeting of the State Council, it is necessary to coordinate medium and long-term development and annual economic operations, focus on promoting the construction of major engineering projects, strengthen policy support and element guarantees, and reasonably grasp the investment intensity for next year in 2021.

"Under the guidance of relevant policies, a number of major projects have been advancing one after another. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, more than 10,000 large projects of 50 million yuan and above were newly received in June, an increase of 11.6% from the previous month. With steady investment The continued force of policies and the gradual commencement of major projects are expected to drive investment to maintain growth." Wen Bin said.

Recently, many places have seized the golden period of project construction, and a series of major projects have started intensively. On July 21, the third batch of 29 major urban projects in Shanghai for 2021 started in a concentrated manner, involving a total investment of about 21.7 billion yuan, covering municipal roads, medical and health, education, social housing and other sectors. The person in charge of the Shanghai Municipal Commission of Housing and Urban-rural Development said that Shanghai is accelerating the construction of major projects, giving full play to the demonstration and leading role of major urban projects and the leading role of investment to ensure the full completion of the construction and investment tasks for the whole year.

Construction of 446 major projects in Tianjin in the second quarter started recently, of which 70 were large projects of more than 1 billion yuan, accounting for more than 70% of the investment; strategic emerging industry projects such as high-end equipment manufacturing, biomedicine, new energy and new materials, big data centers, etc. 195 projects, accounting for nearly 40% of the investment; Guizhou Province recently started 118 projects with a total investment of 90.972 billion yuan, covering ten major industrial industries such as advanced equipment manufacturing industry and big data electronic information industry.

"To better play the role of major projects' ballast, the key is to play the role of major projects in optimizing the investment structure and promoting economic transformation and upgrading." Wang Jun believes that more efforts should be made to strategic emerging industries and the implementation of "dual carbon." Strategic investment focuses on the construction of major, critical and cross-regional infrastructure projects facing the future and facing international competition, steadily promoting the digital transformation of the whole society, accelerating technological innovation, cultivating new momentum, accelerating the implementation of rural revitalization strategies, and promoting the integration of urban and rural areas.

Wen Bin believes that the new changes in future investment are mainly reflected in three aspects: First, the high-tech field. Recently, the growth rate of investment in high-tech industries has continued to be higher than that of fixed asset investment, but some "stuck neck" problems still need to be broken. In the future, a number of fields are expected to emerge around the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries, high-tech industries and service industries, and innovation and entrepreneurship. Key investment projects. The second is the field of social and people's livelihood. With the in-depth implementation of rural revitalization, new urbanization and agricultural modernization, public services such as charging piles, parking lots, science, education, culture, and health, as well as clean energy and green environmental protection, there is a large investment space. The third is to make up for shortcomings. In areas such as urban infrastructure renewal and transformation, improvement of basic networks such as telecommunications and logistics, and optimization and stabilization of the industrial chain and supply chain, there is a large investment space.

Pay more attention to improving quality and efficiency

Xu Hongcai, deputy director of the Economic Policy Committee of the Chinese Policy Research Institute, believes that the growth rate of infrastructure investment in the first half of the year is still low, and it is necessary to accelerate the construction of new infrastructure, new urbanization, and major projects "two new and one heavy". The high-end manufacturing industry is still weak at present and needs to further strengthen innovation. Manufacturing investment should pay more attention to improving quality and efficiency.

"Since 2021, the rise in commodity prices has increased the cost pressures of private enterprises and squeezed profits." Xu Hongcai said that it is necessary to maintain reasonable and abundant liquidity, continue to optimize the business environment, and mobilize the enthusiasm of private investment.

Wen Bin believes that to promote the continuous recovery of investment, it is necessary to do a good job of guidance, support and guarantee from the macro policy level. For example, in terms of industrial policy, scientifically formulate implementation plans and advance project implementation in an orderly manner; in terms of fiscal policy, play the role of active fiscal policy and increase efforts to improve quality and efficiency. Make good use of local government special bonds and other policy tools to ensure the source of project funds. In terms of monetary policy, the role of structural policy should be played to guide the optimization of investment structure and maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity.

"Further play to the key role of investment still requires greater financial effort." Wang Jun said that as an important tool for counter-cyclical adjustment, fiscal control should give full play to the role of making up for the omissions. In the second half of the year, the financial needs and the ability to accelerate efforts should appropriately speed up the intensity and pace of fiscal expenditures to ensure the completion of the annual local government special bond issuance task, and provide sufficient ammunition reserves for the annual economic growth to support local infrastructure investment and manufacturing Investment to support investment in major projects.

In the first half of the year, investment in key construction projects increased steadily, and a large number of projects in various provinces were launched. Looking forward to the second half of the year, the effects of a series of policies conducive to continued investment recovery have been reflected in some of the leading indicators. From January to May, the planned total investment in newly-started projects increased by 9% year-on-year, and the two-year average growth rate was 8.4%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from the previous four months. From January to June, the amount of investment in place increased by 16.8% year-on-year. 4.2% higher than the investment growth rate. "More abundant funds provide an important guarantee for investment growth. It is expected that fixed asset investment will continue to recover in the second half of the year. On average over two years, the level of investment growth is expected to return to before the epidemic." Ren Rongrong, associate researcher at the Investment Research Institute of China Academy of Macroeconomics Express. Editor/Xu Shengpeng