With the continuous recovery of the economy after the epidemic, government investment in various provinces has gradually increased. Recently, a number of major projects have been started in many places, and multiple measures have been taken to expand effective investment to help the economy continue to recover. Industry insiders pointed out that in the second half of the year, with the gradual implementation of major engineering projects identified in the "14th Five-Year Plan", the issuance of special bonds in the third quarter accelerated significantly, which will promote the moderate growth of infrastructure investment and continue to play a role in stabilizing economic growth.

Infrastructure investment continues to grow

Since the second half of the year, infrastructure investment has continued to exert strength. Recently, major projects in Guangdong, Hubei, Anhui and other places have started intensively.

On July 31, Wuhan held a concentrated start of major projects in the third quarter. This time, a total of 161 major projects of more than 100 million yuan were started, with a total investment of 215.8 billion yuan. On the same day, Anhui held the mobilization meeting for the seventh batch of major projects in 2021. A total of 227 major projects were started, with a total investment of 106.4 billion yuan, involving 10 industry sectors including strategic emerging industries and traditional industrial upgrading.

Prior to this, on July 19, Tianjin’s second batch of major projects in 2021 was intensively started, and 446 major projects with a total investment of 310.7 billion yuan sounded the drums of war. On June 28th, Guangdong's second quarter of the major project concentrated start activities started. In the second quarter, 1075 major projects were started in various parts of the province, with a total investment of 991.3 billion yuan.

Recently, the Beijing Development and Reform Commission stated that in 2021, Beijing will continue to plan and implement the “3 100” city key projects, focusing on promoting 100 infrastructure, 100 people’s livelihood improvements, and 100 technological innovation and high-tech industrial projects, including 120 new projects. There are 180 continued projects, with a total project investment exceeding 1.3 trillion yuan. It is reported that of the 120 new projects in the first half of 2021, 48 have already started construction.

Statistics from the Big Data Platform of Infrastructure Communications show that 19 major highway projects have started construction in the last half month alone, with a total investment of 159.5 billion yuan. A total of 5 major urban rail projects and 1 railway have been started recently, with a total investment of more than 101.3 billion yuan.

In addition, the construction drawings of the 14th Five-Year Plan for comprehensive transportation development in Shandong, Shanghai, Hainan, Zhejiang, Shenzhen and other places have been released one after another, and infrastructure investment will further increase.

Ren Rongrong, an associate researcher at the Investment Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Macroeconomics, believes that in the second half of the year, the macroeconomic environment and policy environment will generally improve, which will add impetus to reasonable investment growth, investment will continue to improve steadily, and the key role of effective investment will continue. Play.

The special debt leveraging effect may gradually appear

As an important source of funds for infrastructure construction, special bonds are still an important focus for stable investment. The recent meeting of the Politburo of the Central Committee called for a reasonable grasp of the progress of budgetary investment and local government bond issuance to promote the formation of a physical workload at the end of 2021 and early next year.

According to data from the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Finance has issued a new local government debt limit of 4,267.6 billion yuan in 2021. Among them, the general debt limit is 800 billion yuan, and the special debt limit is 3,467.6 billion yuan.

“If 3 trillion yuan of new special bonds are invested in the infrastructure sector in 2021, it may theoretically drive investment of about 5.2 trillion yuan in infrastructure construction.” China Chengxin International recently released a report stating that, from the perspective of the issuance of local government special bonds, combined with fiscal The Ministry’s proposal to "appropriately relax the time limit for special bond issuance and reasonably grasp the pace of issuance." At the end of the quarter, considering the cold weather from November to December and the unsuitability of some infrastructure projects, the new bonds may be issued in the third quarter of 2021. It is expected that new special bonds will be issued in the third quarter of more than 5,000 per month. 100 million yuan. Due to the sluggish pace of issuance in 2021, and the long transmission chain from bond issuance to the formation of physical workload and stimulating investment, the leveraging effect on infrastructure investment may gradually appear in the third quarter.

Keywords: infrastructure construction, infrastructure construction, domestic engineering news, infrastructure engineering news

From the perspective of the specific investment direction of the special debt, Industrial Securities statistics found that in the first half of the year, the proportions of transportation infrastructure, people's livelihood services, municipal and industrial park infrastructure were 35.4%, 32.3%, and 25.0%, respectively, accounting for more than 90% of the total. Compared with the same period last year, the proportions have expanded. In addition, there are a few special bonds invested in agriculture, forestry, water conservancy and other fields, reflecting the positive role of special bonds in expanding effective investment and promoting the stable operation of the macro economy.

Infrastructure investment and financing environment will tend to improve

Ren Rongrong believes that more than 2 trillion yuan of special bonds will be issued in the second half of the year to provide more financial support for infrastructure investment. Coupled with the benefits of the first batch of infrastructure public offering REITs that have opened up a new model of infrastructure financing, the infrastructure investment and financing environment will tend to improve. With the gradual implementation of major engineering projects identified in the "14th Five-Year Plan", a moderate increase in infrastructure investment will be promoted.

"In the second half of the year, the growth rate of infrastructure investment will still have room for power." Cheng Shi, chief economist of ICBC International, predicts that as the issuance and use of special bonds accelerate in the second half of the year, if the use of special bond funds reaches 3.6 trillion yuan in 2021 , Which can drive the growth of general infrastructure construction by 3.6 percentage points, which in turn provides a 0.6 percentage point contribution rate to my country’s GDP growth.

According to Tang Jianwei of the Development Research Department of the Bank of Communications, the annual growth rate of infrastructure investment in the second half of the year is expected to be around 5%. "In the second half of the year, local government special debts are sufficient, new infrastructure growth momentum is good, new urbanization, regional coordination and interconnection and other factors such as the acceleration of infrastructure construction will support the growth of infrastructure investment, but the factors restricting the acceleration of infrastructure investment are also obvious. The growth rate of infrastructure investment is difficult to grow rapidly. Affected by the rising effect of the low base number, manufacturing investment is expected to achieve double-digit growth. Real estate investment is resilient and the growth momentum is good. It is expected that the annual fixed asset investment will increase by 7.6%." He predicts. Editor/Xu Shengpeng