Macro
Vietnam adjusts its eighth power plan
Seetao 2021-09-14 14:47
  • Vietnam will give priority to the development of renewable energy, and its share may increase substantially in the future
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Vietnam's power industry has great potential for medium and long-term investment, and power supply shortages still exist in some regions. The Ministry of Industry and Trade announced that according to the eighth power plan that is being rearranged and updated, power projects in the northern region will be given priority for development, power projects in the central region will slow down, and power projects in the southern region will be rationally arranged for investment .

According to Vietnam's "Eighth Electricity Plan Draft", it is estimated that the investment demand for Vietnam's power grid development during the 2021-2030 period will reach 33.4 billion U.S. dollars. During the 2021-2030 period, Vietnam needs to build additional 500 kV substations with a total capacity of 86 GVA and approximately 13,000 kilometers of transmission lines. In the 2031-2045 phase, it is necessary to build an additional 103GVA 500 kV substation and approximately 6000 kilometers of transmission lines. It is estimated that during the 2021-2030 period, Vietnam’s power grid will require an investment of US$33.4 billion. Among them, US$14.7 billion was used for transmission network construction, and US$18.7 billion was used for distribution network construction. Generally, in the investment structure of power grid construction, power grid construction investment accounts for 27% and power supply accounts for 73%. According to estimates, Vietnam needs 3.4 billion U.S. dollars to invest in power grid construction every year.

Vietnam's "Eighth Power Plan Draft" outlines a future power supply strategy centered on natural gas and liquefied natural gas. The eighth draft power plan predicts that power demand will decline. This is caused by the superposition of two factors: the new crown epidemic in 2020 has reduced the demand for electricity, and the current economic growth will slow down to 2030. In the next 10 years, the peak demand is expected to be 4.6-7.2% lower than the estimated level in the revised PDP7, and the total power supply will be 5.8-11.4% lower than the estimated level. Despite the slowdown in growth, the overall demand forecast remains optimistic, and demand may be suppressed due to potential delays in power generation projects.

In order to accelerate the energy transition and implement the green development of the power industry, the eighth draft of the power plan intends to use gas-fired power generation as the backbone of the power system. Fossil fuel power generation projects still occupy an important position in the planning. It is estimated that 39 million kilowatts of fossil fuel power generation projects (17 million kilowatts of coal and 22 million kilowatts of natural gas/liquefied natural gas) will be put into use in the next ten years, while solar and wind power installations will be installed in the same period. Will add 19 million kilowatts. The draft clearly prioritizes natural gas power generation projects to replace the much criticized coal power generation projects. However, this draft ignores the substantial increase in the proportion of renewable energy from 2018 to 2020. In addition, 84% of the new fossil energy power generation capacity will come from imported fuels, which will trigger energy security concerns. Editor/Xu Shengpeng


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