Editorial
Three pillars! What changes will the wind turbine market pattern usher in?
Seetao 2021-09-29 16:05
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The promotion of affordable wind power has brought huge challenges to the development of wind turbines. Recently, China Longyuan Power Gansu Jieyuan Wind Power Co., Ltd. announced its bid for the 200,000-kilowatt wind turbine procurement project at Qiduntan. The first and second winning candidates were Xinjiang Goldwind Technology Co., Ltd. and Envision Energy Co., Ltd. They were 437.472 million yuan and 440 million yuan respectively, and Goldwind won the bid. Some calculations show that the winning bid price of the wind turbine is about 2,187 yuan/kW, setting the lowest bid price record for direct drive wind turbines in 2021.

Direct drive and doubly-fed are two mainstream wind turbine types currently on the market. While the latest doubly-fed wind turbines offer prices as low as 1880 yuan/kW, direct drive models are also close to the 2,000 yuan/kW mark. The era of parity has arrived, what changes will the wind turbine technology landscape usher in?

Two leading models have both reduced prices

Since the 1990s, when Chinese fans started their localization attempts, direct-drive fans and doubly-fed fans have maintained their respective advantages and compete with each other. "From past experience, the manufacturing cost of direct-drive fans is relatively higher than that of doubly-fed fans. Among the fans of the same power, the bidding price of doubly-fed fans is usually lower than that of direct-drive fans." A person from a complete machine manufacturer who did not want to be named Express.

It is understood that direct drive fans and doubly-fed fans have their own advantages. In the doubly-fed fan, the gear box is connected to the wind turbine, and the wind wheel drives the gear box to rotate at a high speed to achieve power generation, while the direct drive fan means that the power is not transmitted through the gear box. Compared with doubly-fed wind turbines, the volume is relatively large under the same capacity, and the lifting and transportation costs are relatively higher. However, due to the risk of damage such as overloading of the gearbox, the operation and maintenance cost of direct-drive wind turbines is relatively low. Down has quite an advantage.

In 2021, China's onshore wind power officially enters the era of parity. Under the fierce market competition and pressure to reduce costs, the complete machine market has ushered in a substantial price cut. In September 2021, China General Nuclear Power Group opened bids for the procurement of two wind farm units in Qujing City, Yunnan. Shanghai Electric, whose main product is doubly-fed generators, was quoted at a unit price of as low as 1880 yuan per kilowatt, a record that currently public information does not include the quotation of tower wind turbines. New low.

"The trend of bid opening in 2021 has become clearer. The price reduction of doubly-fed wind turbines is greater than that of direct-drive wind turbines. The average wind turbine quotation of the complete machine manufacturer mainly doubly-fed models has dropped from 4400 yuan/kW last year to about 2200 yuan/kW. Basically cut in half, and under the same circumstances, direct-drive wind turbines are usually two to three hundred yuan higher per kilowatt.” The above-mentioned industry insider said.

The price increase of raw materials affects the cost reduction

According to data released by market research institutions such as the Zheshang Securities Research Institute, in the first half of 2021, in the bidding of wind power projects by central enterprise developers, Envision Energy’s newly installed capacity exceeded 4.5 million kilowatts. Subsequently, CRRC Wind Power, Goldwind Technology, The installed capacity of first- and second-tier complete machine companies such as Yunda, Sany Zhongneng, and Mingyang Energy remained at around 3 million kilowatts. From the perspective of market share, in the first half of the year, the market share of doubly-fed wind turbines occupies a greater advantage.

"In the first half of 2021, the price of non-ferrous metals such as copper has increased significantly. The amount of copper used in direct-drive permanent magnet generators is relatively higher. At the same time, rare earth metals such as neodymium will also be used. Has a greater impact.” The above-mentioned industry insiders said bluntly.

It is understood that raw materials are the main cost source of wind turbine components. In fact, in August 2021, the international wind turbine giant Siemens Gamesa, which mainly focuses on direct-drive wind turbines, announced that due to the impact of rising commodity prices, the company will increase wind turbine prices by about 5% globally.

Although the pressure on raw material costs is still difficult to alleviate in the short term, in the industry's view, the trend of large-scale units will largely flatten the unit power cost, thereby promoting direct-drive wind turbines and even the overall wind power industry to reduce costs. Since 2021, OEMs such as Goldwind, Dongfang Electric, and Yunda have successively announced 4-6 MW onshore wind turbine models. With the continuous increase in the capacity of onshore wind turbines, the cost reduction of direct drive wind turbines is still relatively promising. .

Prospects for new technology forces can be expected

Although dual-fed and direct-drive still dominate the market, in fact, many people in the industry also told reporters that permanent magnet semi-direct-drive fans are a technology that combines the advantages of direct-drive and double-fed fans. The path is catching up.

It is understood that the permanent magnet semi-direct drive fan combines the advantages of double-fed and direct-drive fans. On the basis of direct drive, the gearbox is increased to increase the speed, which can reduce the loss of the gearbox in the fan during operation at a lower speed. At the same time, the consumption of raw materials per unit kilowatt of the fan is also reduced, and the weight and volume of the fan are reduced.

Market research institution Huachuang Securities analyzed that compared with direct drive and doubly-fed wind turbines of the same power, the unit volume of semi-direct drive wind turbines has been greatly reduced, which greatly reduces the lifting cost, and is currently China's relatively optimal economy. Technical route of wind turbine.

Up to now, OEMs such as Mingyang Intelligent, CRRC Wind Power, Vestas, etc. have successively announced that they will develop semi-direct drive offshore wind turbines. The breakthrough of semi-direct drive wind turbine technology has also become an important help for the continuous cost reduction of wind turbines. .

“As the trend of large-scale units continues, semi-direct drive is likely to become a'new force' in the wind turbine market.” The above-mentioned industry insiders pointed out, “For offshore wind power, wind turbines of 6-8 MW or even more than 10 MW will There is a large application space. Judging from the current layout of offshore wind power manufacturers, semi-direct drive is already the more mainstream technology path. For onshore wind power, the technology is constantly making breakthroughs, and the future is estimated to be direct drive and double-fed And semi-direct drive and other technological paths compete with each other and compete on the same stage." Key words: engineering news, engineering construction information

At present, the main technical routes adopted by domestic fans are doubly-fed, permanent magnet direct drive and permanent magnet semi-direct drive. Among them, doubly-fed wind turbines usually have small stand-alone capacity and flexible installation. Domestic representative complete machine manufacturers include Envision Energy, Shanghai Electric, etc.; direct-drive fans have relatively low later operation and maintenance costs. Domestic representative complete machine manufacturers include Goldwind Technology, Yunda shares, etc.; the semi-direct drive wind turbine combines the advantages of the above two wind turbines. Compared with the double-fed wind turbine, it can effectively reduce the loss of the gear box. Compared with the direct drive wind turbine, the weight and volume are the same. Even lower, OEMs such as Mingyang Intelligent, CRRC Wind Power, and Vestas have successively announced that they will develop semi-direct drive offshore wind turbines. Editor/Sang Xiaomei

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