By 2030, the average annual demand for investment funds for the development of power sources and power grids will be between US$1.0-115 billion, and this number will increase to US$1.2-15 billion in ten years. This content is expressed in the "Draft of the National Electricity Development Plan 2021-2030" (Vision 2045) (Electricity Plan 8) that the Ministry of Industry and Trade has just submitted to the Vietnamese government after several revisions and reviews.

According to the draft, during the period 2021-2030, the total investment funds required for the implementation of the power development plan are about 99.2-115.96 billion US dollars, which is equivalent to 1-111.5 billion US dollars per year. Among them, the average funding for power development is US$8.57-10.15 billion per year; the funding for the transmission grid is about US$136-14.4 billion per year. Ten years later, the capital required to invest in power sources and power grids each year will increase to US$1.2 to 15.2 billion.

In addition, one of the important goals of the Eighth Draft of the Electricity Plan is to give priority to the development and use of renewable energy for electricity production. In 2030, the proportion of renewable energy power in the entire system will reach 11.9-13.4%, and it will increase to 26.5-28.4% in 2045.

Increase the proportion of renewable energy

When formulating the eighth implementation plan of the electric power master plan, the total capacity of the power source will be reviewed to match the ability to release the grid capacity and safely operate the power system. Especially for coal power, the eighth draft of the power plan is proposed. For a batch of coal power projects that have been approved in the national power development plan but have not received local support or do not meet the development conditions, the plan will not be considered for the time being. The master plan also emphasizes the continued development of domestic coal resources to provide fuel for these factories; at the same time, the use of mixed coal (domestic coal and imported coal) to power existing coal-fired power plants.

The load forecast of Power Plan 8 implements 3 options, corresponding to 3 scenarios of GDP growth in each period in 2045. The load forecast results after this review have not changed compared with the reported results. In terms of scale, in the base load plan, Vietnam's total installed capacity in 2030 is 130,371 MW, which is 7689 MW less than the plan reported in March. Vietnam’s total installed capacity in 2045 will be 261,951 MW, a reduction of 15,000 MW. In the high-load scenario, Vietnam’s total installed capacity in 2030 will be reduced by 6000 MW from the plan submitted to the government in March, reaching only 143,839 MW. It will be 329,610 megawatts in 2045, a decrease of 14,200 megawatts.

The Ministry of Industry and Trade of Vietnam proposes to choose a high-load scenario as the operation plan to ensure a reasonable level of power reserve and meet the power demand of economic growth to 2030 and 2045. Regarding the development of the transmission grid, Power Plan 8 puts forward the goal of constructing a transmission system to meet the requirements of the national power system for safe, stable operation and grid-connection rate of renewable energy. Build 500kV and above transmission grids, transmit power from large power centers to load centers, and connect regional and regional power systems; limit the addition of 500kV cross-regional transmission lines and long-distance transmission. Apply technology to power grid investment and development, and gradually form a smart transmission grid. After 2030, study the construction of AC and DC transmission grids with voltages higher than 500kV, flexible transmission equipment...

Compared with the plan put forward by the Ministry of Industry and Trade in March, the amount of investment in the transmission grid after review is said to have been "substantially reduced." Also according to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, Vietnam’s power supply structure and regional balance are calculated. Power Plan 8 predicts that the first phase of the Longshan LNG power generation project (1500 MW) will be put into operation in 2031-2035; Hailang (1,500MW) will be between 2036 and 2040. Operation, and may soon be synchronized with the progress of the KenBau gas field. These projects have previously been approved by the Prime Minister to supplement the master plan, and progress will be made between 2026 and 2030.

For the ChanMayLNG project, Power Plan 8 is expected to be implemented when more natural gas power plants cannot be developed in the north during 2041-2045. However, Chengtian Hue Province proposed to put the 800 MW of the project into operation before 2026-2030, so the Ministry of Industry and Trade asked the Prime Minister to comment on the progress of these projects. Editor/Xu Shengpeng