On May 18, 2022, China National Energy Corporation held the 2022 Power Project Centralized Commencement (Pre-Commencement) Ceremony, announcing the commencement of 11 power projects including onshore new energy bases, offshore wind power, large hydropower, coal power expansion and upgrade, and natural gas power generation. The total installed capacity is 12.38 million kilowatts, of which clean and renewable energy accounts for about 60%.

Strive for 22 million kilowatts of new energy grid-connected in 2022

In fact, this intensive construction project is part of the National Energy Group's major projects for 2022. The National Energy Group will invest 200 billion yuan in development throughout the year, and strive to achieve the construction of 31 million kilowatts of power projects and the commissioning of 22 million kilowatts, of which more than 20 million kilowatts of new energy will be started and 15 million kilowatts will be put into production. At present, the National Energy Group's thermal power installed capacity exceeds 70%, and it is the enterprise with the greatest pressure to achieve the goal of 50% renewable energy in the five major and six small enterprises. According to the "14th Five-Year" new energy plan, the National Energy Group plans to build 120 million kilowatts of new energy projects. According to the completion target in 2022, the annual task target should be 20 million kilowatts, of course, 22 million kilowatts should be strived for in 2022.

The target of wind power installations in 2022 will not be reduced

In fact, last month, 20 days ago, on April 26, China Huaneng Group Co., Ltd. started construction of new energy projects in the second quarter of 2022, including the northern clean energy base, the eastern offshore wind power base, The integrated base of "wind-solar water storage" and photovoltaic projects in the central and eastern regions, more than 150 projects with a total of more than 10 million kilowatts of new energy projects have started construction and are ready for construction. It is reported that China Huaneng expects the construction of new energy projects to exceed 15 million kilowatts in the first half of the year. That is to say, the scale of new energy construction projects throughout the year is more than this scale. According to the information disclosed by Shu Yinbiao, chairman of Huaneng Group and academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, at the project opening ceremony, the goal of 18 million kilowatts of new energy installations connected to the grid in 2022 will be achieved. .

It is understood that Huaneng's 14th Five-Year New Energy installed capacity target is 80 million kilowatts. According to the guaranteed target of 15 million kilowatts in 2022, the goal of the 14th Five-Year Plan is no longer in doubt.

There is no doubt that Guoneng, Huaneng, the two major thermal power giants, have already started the 14th Five-Year battle in the new energy installation war "epidemic" in 2022. In ensuring the "hard task" of new energy development, in implementing the "dual carbon" goal and stabilizing the economic fundamentals, the two "energy" can indeed be achieved.

In fact, the author found in the statistics of the 14th Five-Year New Energy Plan of the Five Major, Six Small and Two Constructions (Power Construction and Energy Construction) that the new energy plans of State Power Investment Corporation and Huadian in the 14th Five-Year Plan are both 75 million kilowatts, even the low-key ones. Datang Group's new energy plan also planned a new energy target of 38 million kilowatts, and the total scale of new energy in the five and fourteenth five-year plan reached 388 million kilowatts. Except for the State Power Investment Corporation, which completed 50% of the renewable energy target ahead of schedule (it is already 56% in 2021), the remaining four are all rigid mission targets.

In addition to Three Gorges and China Guangdong Nuclear Power, SDIC Power and China Resources Power are currently also reducing the proportion of thermal power indicators. This is the case. The cumulative new energy installed capacity indicators of the six small energy central enterprises have also exceeded 200 million kilowatts. Three Gorges Energy, China General Nuclear Power New Energy, China Resources The goals of the 14th Five-Year Plan for electric power are all 40-50 million kilowatts. The Three Gorges project will exceed 20 million kilowatts in 2022. China General Nuclear Power will start construction projects of nearly 10 million kilowatts in 2022. China Resources Power will start construction projects of more than 10 million kilowatts. All of these are for the purpose of A target: 50%.

Looking back at the bidding for wind power projects since 2022, the ravages of the new crown epidemic have been ignored, and the industry statistics have exceeded industry expectations.

From January to April, the bidding of wind power host exceeds 40GW

Statistics from industry media and investment banks show that from January to April, China's offshore wind power host bidding capacity has exceeded 40GW. This data does not include a few projects that have not been publicly tendered. Since 2022, landwind/sea breeze tenders have continued to exceed expectations. According to statistics from Goldwind Technology, from January to March 2022, China's open market will add 24.7GW of new tenders, a year-on-year increase of 74%; according to incomplete statistics from analysts, 14.4GW of new tenders will be added in April, a year-on-year increase of 136%. Compared with the first quarter, the acceleration was obvious. As of the end of April, China's wind power tendering volume has exceeded 40GW, of which the landwind tender volume in April has increased significantly month-on-month. Some optimistic industry experts predict that the annual sea-land wind turbine tender is expected to exceed 80GW, but I personally think that 70GW is no longer a suspense.

Obviously, the repeated and complicated situation of the epidemic in various places since 2022 has not affected the enthusiasm of wind power investment. Under the pressure and momentum of the 50% renewable energy installed capacity index, the development of the wind power industry has ushered in unprecedented opportunities. With the accelerated upgrade of large megawatts of wind power, the accelerated construction of large-scale base projects and the overall price reduction of wind turbines, the installed capacity of onshore wind power is expected to usher in a rapid recovery, and the rate of return is expected to be significantly restored.

The epidemic cannot stop the pace of wind power installations

According to incomplete statistics from Seedao.com, the scale of new energy projects with guaranteed grid-connected and market-based grid access from 2021 to 2022 has exceeded 100GW, and the wind power project (host) to be tendered in 2021 should be 62-65GW. According to the tender, under construction , Preliminary analysis of the rolling data of grid connection, only this part of the installed capacity should not be less than 25GW, this part of the project must be completed by the end of 2022, and the projects tendered in the first half of 2022 (40GW) will basically be completed in 2022. The grid connection, coupled with the installation of some projects in the first half of the year, the installed capacity data in 2022 may surprise everyone. According to the latest CGNPC 315 wind turbine hoisting bidding data, these projects were all connected to the grid from October to December. Therefore, from these data, we can boldly predict that the installed capacity of onshore and offshore wind power will be 55-60GW in 2022.

We can also look at the construction goals of the five small and six small projects: the combined wind power of Huaneng and Guoneng is at least 12GW, six small + two construction + 10 local energy enterprises (local energy enterprises are expected to be 20), each enterprise According to the 3GW target statistics, the data has exceeded 60GW.

Of course, I want to interpret the market of offshore wind power for everyone here. The projects and subsidy projects of offshore wind power in Guangdong, Shandong, and Zhejiang have been tendered. If nothing else, the installed capacity of offshore wind power in 2022 will be guaranteed at 5GW. If it exceeds expectations, 8GW Maybe it's not a dream, anyway, the construction ships and equipment prices in 2022 have brought too many surprises to our Haifeng development company.

Tips for Large MW Wind Turbine Scale Installations

Obviously, in more than a year, onshore wind turbines have entered the 7MW era from the 3MW era, and such an iterative speed is commendable from the perspective of innovation. From January to April, the price of mainframes plunged sharply, and recovered slightly in April. However, from the perspective of the development of the industry, the high quality and low price are based on the premise that the supplier has a certain reasonable profit. Otherwise, it is difficult to provide excellent performance, reliable quality and perfect service. , I believe that our industry companies have seen this, otherwise the impact on the industry will be immeasurable.

At the same time, we must learn from the small lessons of the rush to install in 2020. On the one hand, we must prepare for production capacity and on the other hand, we must do a good job in quality assurance. Judging from the iterative history of international giant wind turbines, we are forced to be helpless under the premise of parity, but in the era of large-megawatt wind turbines, the reliability of quality will be more critical than ever: the failure cost of a single wind turbine will be very high, On the one hand, the failure of a single wind turbine will affect the power generation of the wind farm by 1-2 times higher than the original, and the cost of troubleshooting will be higher (hoisting costs, maintenance time in and out of the site, etc.). In fact, the history of the rush to install in 2020 has already explained a lot of problems.

The pattern of the industry cannot be broken in the short term, because the business model of the industry has changed, from pure procurement to the deep integration of upstream and downstream development. From this point of view, the possibility of price wars will be much less in the future, with reasonable profits and reliable quality. Seize the great opportunity of the advanced development of wind power brought by the 3060 dual carbon goal, gradually go out of China, face Asia, and impact the world, so that Chinese wind power will become the standard of global wind power. Editor / Xu Shengpeng