Since the second quarter of 2022, with the continuous introduction of the national growth stabilization policy, China's construction machinery demand will continue to improve in the second half of the year. Simply considering the domestic construction machinery demand cycle, it is expected that the monthly sales trend of excavators should turn positive in 2023. However, due to the substantial increase in the proportion of exports since 2021, the continuous high increase in exports has driven up the monthly sales of excavators, and the year-on-year data is expected to turn positive earlier until the second half of 2022.

In 2022, the central government will set the tone for stable growth and speed up the issuance of special bonds, which are expected to be used up in August. The superimposed government proposes to comprehensively strengthen infrastructure construction, and the prosperity of the infrastructure industry will pick up. At present, the real estate industry data is still bottoming out, but with the gradual loosening of the real estate industry policy, it is expected to usher in a recovery. Through the dual-drive assistance of infrastructure and real estate industries, the construction machinery industry will usher in opportunities.

It is assumed that in 2022, the export of excavators will increase by 40%, and the annual utilization hours of Komatsu will decrease by 4%. According to the sensitivity analysis and forecast of the excavator earthwork forecast model, the growth rate of infrastructure investment in 2022 will increase by 7% year-on-year, and the new real estate construction area will decline by 12%. 304,000 units, down about 11% year-on-year. Considering the cumulative decline of 39% in the sales of excavators from January to May 2022, the sales of excavators will initially show a reverse trend in the second half of the year, the monthly sales are expected to turn positive, and the industry will gradually turn to a prosperous trend. Editor / Xu Shengpeng