Speaking at India's Independence Day celebrations, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said India aims to become a developed country within 25 years and will formulate policies to support the development of the country's power, defense and digital technology sectors. In his speech, the Prime Minister of India encouraged young people to "aim high" and dedicate their best years to the country. "It's a big resolution, and we should go all out to make it happen," he said.

Modi said India will achieve excellence in science and technology, develop industry and achieve food and energy security, guided by the spirit of self-reliance and international cooperation. Modi has also pledged to fight corruption and nepotism, which he says are like termites eroding the nation's development gains.

India is currently the sixth largest economy in the world and is expected to grow by more than 7% this fiscal year. Reuters also quoted experts as saying that although India's per capita income is currently low compared to many countries, by 2050, India may become the world's third-largest economy after the United States and China.

Where does Modi's confidence come from?

With India's economic growth in recent years, predicting India's future economic development has become a hot topic in recent years, and some international organizations and research institutions are indeed optimistic. Taking China as a reference, we can see India's economic growth curve more clearly.

Modi came to power in 2014. In the seven years since 2015, the ratios of the economic aggregates of China and India were 5.257, 4.893, 4.463, 5.142, 4.794, 5.612, and 5.814, respectively. China is the fastest growing economy in the world, and has always maintained an economic scale of five times that of India, while India has basically kept pace with China.

Based on India's current policy scenario and exchange rate levels, India's GDP is expected to grow to $8.6 trillion by 2040, the International Energy Agency estimates. Some institutions believe that by 2047, India's economy may reach 12 trillion - 15 trillion US dollars, and China's current level. In addition, some factors outside the economy may have encouraged Modi as well.

Under the situation of great power competition, India has gained new geostrategic advantages. India is an important part of the Indo-Pacific strategy and has received a lot of international capital support. India's population structure is ideal. The average age of its population is less than 29 years old, about 10 years younger than China and the United States, and there are more demographic dividends that can be tapped. The Hindu nationalism promoted by Modi has improved India's administrative efficiency to a certain extent. Since Modi's BJP government came to power, India's road network has been built at a much faster rate than during the Congress rule.

There are many more insurmountable obstacles

For India to become a developed country, not only the challenges of economic growth, but also deeper obstacles are difficult to overcome. For example, Hindu nationalism actually strengthens the caste system. Although Modi claims to be a low caste in every general election, in fact India's elections from central to local often exclude millions of low caste voters.

In addition, "anti-Muslim" incidents have occurred frequently in India in recent years, and Muslims, who account for 13% of India's total population, do not enjoy equal political and economic rights. With such an unhealthy social system, how can economic indicators become developed countries? Another example is that India is difficult to solve the land problem, resulting in the lack of concentration of land elements and delaying India's industrialization process. Modi's policy of forcibly expropriating land for industrialization without farmers' consent was met with strong backlash from local governments and farmers, but was ultimately unsuccessful.

Another example is that India still has one of the highest illiteracy rates in emerging economies, with 280 million people in the country who are illiterate. According to Unesco's statistics, Indians make up the largest proportion of illiterate young women - which actually reflects the serious inequality between men and women in India. The National Interest of the United States once pointed out that the high illiteracy rate is an important factor in Modi's inability to achieve "Made in India to replace Made in China". Keywords: engineering news, overseas news

It is estimated that India's GDP growth rate in 2022 is expected to reach 7.4%. However, economic growth does not mean that historical evils and social problems will be automatically eliminated. India, with its caste system remnants, high illiteracy rate and gender inequality, is still a long way from being a developed country.Editor/XingWentao