Whether it is the ancient Silk Road or the current Belt and Road Initiative, neither route remains the same. The northern corridor of the Belt and Road passes through Mongolia and Russia, using Russia's Trans-Siberian Railway system to connect Eurasia together. However, Western sanctions against Russia are now threatening the development of the Eurasian railway line, even its very existence. The movement of goods between China and Europe along the northern corridor has fallen by 40% since the conflict between Russia and Ukraine began. Under such circumstances, the trans-Caspian international transport route through Central Asia, the South Caucasus, and Turkey—that is, the broad prospect of the Middle Corridor—is highlighted and can become a new option for China-Europe freight routes. The middle corridor includes 4,256 kilometers of railway lines and 508 kilometers of sea routes, stretching from the China-Kazakhstan border across the Caspian Sea to southern Europe.

Since its opening in 2017, there has been a steady increase in the use of the middle corridor. In 2021, the freight volume of the middle corridor will be 29,000 TEUs, a year-on-year increase of 52%. An executive of Azerbaijan Railway container logistics company ADY Container said that compared with the same period in 2021, the volume of container freight in the middle corridor has increased by another 45% from the first 10 months of 2022.

According to a report released by the Trans-Caspian Sea International Transport Corridor Alliance TITR Alliance, which is composed of freight forwarders from Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Georgia, the volume of goods transported through the middle corridor is expected to reach 50,000 TEUs, or 3.2 million tons, by 2022. . However, it is worth noting that the middle corridor cannot completely replace the northern corridor - after all, in 2021, the freight volume of the middle corridor is only equivalent to 8% of the northern corridor.

The most difficult part of transporting goods along the middle corridor is the Caspian Sea, but progress has also been made on this front. TITR Union Secretary-General Heydar Abdyklimov said that from September 2022, the number of ships sailing between the port of Aktau in Kazakhstan and the port of Baku in Azerbaijan will increase to six, meaning that the capacity will double.

In September 2022, during the Samarkand Summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, China, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan signed a cooperation document to promote the construction of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan Railway. It is estimated that after the completion of the railway, the railway transportation distance between China and Europe will be 900 kilometers shorter than the existing shortest route, which can save up to 8 days. Goods sent from China can be transported by rail to Europe in just 12 days. Whether this project can be carried out smoothly depends on the positions of EU countries. In this regard, the EU has clearly given firm political support. On July 18, 2022, the European Union and Azerbaijan signed an energy agreement, and are continuing negotiations on expanding cooperation in many other fields. On June 20, the European Union and Kazakhstan issued a joint statement, stating that under the current geopolitical background, the necessity of building an alternative new Asia-Europe communication line is more prominent. On July 25, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development announced that it planned to invest more than US$100 million in Kazakhstan's railway system.

In the second half of 2022, the EU will further increase its political support for the Middle Corridor project. At the end of October, European Council President Michel visited Central Asia and held a summit with the leaders of Central Asian countries. Michel said the summit was "more than just a political dialogue between two regions". At the end of November, European Union High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Borrell visited Central Asia, emphasizing the EU's strong interest in developing cooperative relations with Central Asian countries in the field of connectivity.

middle corridor

Currently, Chinese logistics companies are the main users of the middle corridor. However, European companies have also begun to show greater interest in this route. In April 2022, the Danish logistics giant Maersk opened a railway transportation route through the middle corridor; in May, Finland Nurminen Logistics opened a regular container railway transportation business from Chongqing to Central Europe. On November 25, Baku Port in Azerbaijan signed an agreement with the railway freight division of the Austrian Federal Railways Group and Cabooter, a Dutch logistics group, to cooperate in expanding the scale of freight transport from Europe to Central Asia and China through the middle corridor.

Critics point out that a major disadvantage of the Middle Corridor route is that it needs to cross multiple borders. However, this shortcoming can be turned into an advantage, prompting the participating countries to build mutual trust and create an atmosphere of multilateral cooperation. This Belt of Friendship will bring China, Europe, and all the countries along it closer together, making it possible to build a new Silk Road. The middle corridor may not be the cheapest travel route between Asia and Europe, but it will connect some new untapped markets in landlocked countries. Furthermore, in a rapidly changing world, middle corridors can facilitate supply chain diversification, which is critical to reducing political and economic risks arising from supply chain dependencies.

It is particularly worth noting that all relevant countries and companies are actively cooperating to optimize hardware and software infrastructure, including multilateral cooperation forms. Its purpose is not to transfer the freight business of the northern corridor, but to develop trade in the region and promote economic cooperation among China, Central Asia, the South Caucasus region and Europe. At present, all parties have a strong interest in building a transportation route connecting China and Europe, the two world economic centers, so the middle corridor undoubtedly has broad prospects and a bright future. Editor/He Yuting